Sunday 21 June 2015

Ambition versus Potential

I attended the excellent and informative open day at Easter Road Stadium this afternoon, put on by the Hibs Historical Association as part of the Leith Festival. The day was a great insight into the history and traditions of Hibernian, and showcased the heights at which Hibs once performed.

Hibs record attendance is 65,860, set on the 2nd of January, 1950 against Hearts at a time when Hibs were a formidable force in Scottish football, with the Famous Five entertaining large crowds on a regular basis, and with Easter Road proving a challenging venue for even the greatest of European visitors.

These days, Easter Road has a much reduced capacity. The modernisation of the stadium into an all-seater venue means that, when full, Easter Road now holds 20,421 - and it's rare that the stadium sells out.

Seeing a model of the stadium in its old form and thinking about what it must have been like to have stood on the steep embankments of the old East terracing brought about thoughts about how much potential there actually is at Hibernian, and whether or not that potential is matched by the ambition at the club. The question could also be asked the other way around - does the ambition overstretch the potential?

In modern Scottish football, crowds of 60,000 plus are very rare. Even Celtic struggle to fill their ground for all but the biggest of matches, and it's a similar story at Rangers, where the stark reality of a lack of success aligned with a lack of a trustworthy board in recent seasons has eroded the attendances at Ibrox significantly. Even the showpiece game of the Scottish football calendar - the Scottish Cup Final - attracted a little over 37,000 supporters, leaving almost 15,000 empty seats. It should be noted that the game was played out between Falkirk and Inverness Caledonian Thistle, and so the 37,000 represents a fantastic turnout in relation to their respective average gates.

Hibs have a long way to go to even come close to filling Easter Road on a regular basis. It has been sixty-three years since Hibs won the top flight league title. Hibs fans have given up counting the number of years it's been since they last won the Scottish Cup. The last success Hibs had in any cup competition was in 2007, where they lifted the CIS Cup having defeated Kilmarnock 5-1 in front of 52,000 spectators.

Starved of success, and frustrated with how the club has been run for a number of years, an apathetic Hibs support has found better things to do on a match day. Recent cup finals have shown that there is still a significant Hibs support that could potentially be wooed back to Easter Road, but coming out for a cup final is one thing, getting back into the habit of attending home matches is something else altogether.

Even if Hibs were to fill Easter Road week in, week out, what is the best that they could hope to achieve? At a little over twenty thousand seats, their gate income would still be dwarfed by that of Celtic and Rangers. and with TV income at a fraction of that enjoyed by similarly sized English clubs, Hibs would still struggle to attract talent that would make them competitive outside of the top two or three positions in Scotland.

Celtic, with the huge relative income that they enjoy compared to Hibs, are the poor relations amongst Europe's elite. For Celtic, a club that once won the European Cup, simply qualifying for the Champions League is now considered a success, getting out of the group stages in that competition is a notable achievement.

Manchester City have spent however many hundreds of millions of pounds on their squad and have yet to trouble Europe's best. So what hope do Hibs have of getting a seat at that table ever again?

Where does that stark reality leave the ambitions of the Hibs support and board? Is the extent of the potential at Hibernian a full stadium and the odd second place finish in the top flight (even then, just competing in the top flight might still be some way off depending on whether or not Rangers spend big this summer to get out of the Championship, where their bigger spending potential should - if Dave King's claims are to be believed - put Hibs at a disadvantage for automatic promotion right from the word 'go'.)?

It would be an incredible achievement for Hibs to find themselves in a position just to compete to qualify in the Champions League. Hearts managed to find themselves in a Champions League Qualifier after Romanov spent millions, at a time when second place in the then SPL was enough to secure a qualifying spot. Now, you need to win the league.

So how can Hibs - or any Scottish side - ever hope to get back to where they once were? How can Hibs take a full house and use it to put together a side that competes way higher than the resources should allow?

How do Hibs even get to the point where they have that problem to address? Hibs have started to look seriously at how to reconnect with those lost supporters. A greater presence in the community through partnerships such as the recently announced link-up with Edina Hibs, and with Spartans, along with events such as the excellent open day, will go some way to drawing back supporters whose interest may be re-ignited by reliving past glories, or attracting new supporters who see the club as synonymous with football in Edinburgh.

Of course, the best way to attract fans is to be successful. An exciting, winning team does wonders for getting bums on seats. Building and then sustaining a winning side on limited resources, where your neighbours in England and Glasgow just need to flutter their eyelashes at your players to lure them from you, is a monumental challenge.

Hibs, again, appear to have put a plan in place to get a sustainable way of building a team with George Craig overseeing a complete overhaul of the football operation at Hibernian, from youths through to the first team. This should lead to Hibs being able to produce, sell, and replace talent without impact to the overall quality or style of the first team - similar to the approach taken by Swansea and Southampton in the English Premiership.

The biggest challenge that Hibs have is finding a way to break the shackles of the reality of the situation that they find themselves in, along with the rest of Scottish football, which is that no matter how good they get, how well they do, or how full the stadium is, the odds of achieving anything are stacked against them.

Thursday 4 June 2015

A Statement of Intent.

This week has seen Hibs move to strengthen the team and start assembling a squad fit for winning the league title in the upcoming season. An email from Leeann Dempster dropped into my inbox, as it did with thousands of other season ticket holders, thanking me for renewing and stating - quite clearly - that the ambition this season was to be promoted as champions.

These words would appear relatively hollow, had it not been for a week where Hibs announced that they had secured Fraser Fyvie on a two year deal. Fyvie is an exceptional talent, and to be perfectly honest, he is better than the Scottish Championship. That he sees his immediate future in the green and white of Hibernian is testament to the great work being done at the club by Alan Stubbs and Leeann Dempster.

Fyvie came to Hibs looking to get his career back on track, even to put himself in the shop window. Despite interest from other clubs, Fraser chose to stay at Hibs, confident that the club has the ambition and the means to gain promotion. His signing was possible, in no small part, because of season ticket purchases and supporters subscribing to Hibernian Supporters Limited, where contributions not only fund the football side, but help to buy the shares that will ultimately allow the support to take a controlling stake in Hibernian FC.

Fyvie's signing is a significant coup for Hibs, and represents a definite statement of intent on the club's part.

To add to Fyvie's signature, Hibs also announced the signing of James Keatings and Daniel Carmichael from Hearts and Queen of the South respectively. Carmichael had been courted by a number of clubs, and was given a place in the SPFL team of the year. A tricky winger, he will add a further attacking dimension to Hibs' play this season. Keatings did well at Hearts, and it was his desire to get more game time and the opportunity to work with Alan Stubbs that brought him to Easter Road. Keatings fits the bill for the type of player that Stubbs sees thriving in Leith.

Keatings was frustrated at a lack of game time at Hearts and has a point to prove, in the same way that Scott Allan and Fraser Fyvie had points to prove. Stubbs will give him the environment and the opportunity to grow as a player. It is a shrewd signing by Stubbs, and again shows that Hibs are serious about winning the title this season.

There is still speculation about Scott Allan's future, the league's best midfielder has a year left to run on his contract and Hibernian are looking to extend that - I'll be honest and say that I expect that to happen. Scott is happy at Easter Road and has clearly benefited from the management of Stubbs and his backroom team.

Rangers are credited with an interest in Allan, and who could blame them? He was the stand out player last season, and is at an age where his best years are ahead of him. Hibs will do well to hold on to him.

The same can be said of Stubbs, who is a young manager carving out a great reputation for himself. Hibs are hopeful of extending his deal which will, in turn, give some certainty to players that will commit to him as much as they commit to the football club.

Hibs announced today that they had also re-signed Lewis Stevenson on a further two year deal. Stevenson, like Charmichael, was named in a SPFL team of the season - nominated by his peers as the league's best left back over the course of the season. Stevenson is a cracking wee player, one of my favourites and not just because of the familiarity that comes with being Hibernian's current longest serving player. Stevenson is a little terrier, strong and tenacious with a fantastic temperament, and I'm delighted to see him commit to Hibs for another couple of years.

This news came on the back of the announcement at the start of the week that Liam Craig's departure from the club had meant that David Gray had been given the Captain's armband, to go with an extension to his contract. Gray was Stubbs' first signing, and it would be fair to say he raised the standard at the club straight away, not only with his own on-field performances but also with the standards he set in training. He is an ideal candidate for the Captaincy, respected by the fans and the players alike, and he will be hoping for an injury-free season to make up for some lost time in the season gone by.

Throughout these announcements, Hibs have been clear that they have been able to do the business that has been done because of the funds afforded to them by supporters. For a long time, there has been debate around the need for the club to show some ambition before fans will commit to season tickets, against the argument that the club needs the money from those season tickets to show the ambition.

I believe Hibs have gone about things the right way this time. Ambition isn't just about spending money, it's about achieving beyond your means. Hibs have players in their squad that many would argue are above the Scottish Championship. You could certainly go through the side and find a place in almost all of the Scottish Premiership sides for the players in each position.

Hibs have put their cards on the table and said, from the moment that another season in the Championship was an unwelcome certainty, that the goal was to win the league next season. No caveats or conditions, no targeting the play-off spots. Outright winning the league. Stubbs said it, Dempster said it, the players are talking about it. There is no confusion, the club is showing an ambition that has been sorely lacking in years gone by.

The support are playing their part too, those that have renewed their season tickets, or bought one for the first time have given Hibs the means to sign Fyvie, Gray, Stevenson, Carmichael, and Keatings. That season ticket income has been bolstered by those supporters that signed up to Hibernian Supporters Limited, or who bought shares themselves. Every single penny raised from those revenue streams has gone to the playing squad.

The support have work still to do. We, collectively, as a support can ensure that Stubbs, Allan, Fontaine, Boyle, and any other player that we want to see at Easter Road next season or the season after are there. We can do it by backing the club financially.

I would say to any Hibernian fan out there that might happen across this blog - buy a season ticket if you can, a full buoyant Easter Road is a sight to behold, and the cash that those season ticket sales brings can ensure that Stubbs can build a squad around his best players, rather than losing the best ones and building on the peripheral players.

If a season ticket is beyond your means, or if you have cash spare, then please - sign up for Hibernian Supporters Limited. Not only does your money go right to Stubbs, but it helps the support take control of the club, safeguarding the club for the future. You and I have the means to help Dempster and Stubbs build something special, something spectacular at Hibernian.

Every season ticket, and every HSL subscription counts, every pound committed is a pound that helps give us the best possible crack of winning the league and getting back where we belong - and staying there.

The club are doing everything they can to rise again, they need the support with them.

You can sign up to HSL here: http://hiberniansupporters.co.uk/

Footnote:
This blog represents my views, and my views only. Although I am part of the admin team at www.hibs.net  this blog is written independently and in no way reflects the views of hibs.net.
The blog is also written independently of HSL and Hibernian Football Club.